No matter how hard we try, people’s reasoning does not always follow a logical basis. Time and time again, we are so convinced of the validity and common sense of our reasoning that we end up making countless mistakes.
This is what happens with player error. A type of misconception related to gambling and the likelihood that it can lead people to the point of losing large amounts of money in casinos and betting. Next, we analyze this phenomenon.
What is player error?
Before we dive into the description of player error, we need to know what exactly the term error is. The concept of error belongs to the field of study of logic and the debate on these dates back to the time of Aristotle.
Although there is no absolute consensus on the concrete definition of this concept, we can describe an error as an argument which may seem valid but which in reality is not. Sometimes these errors can be intentionally generated for the purpose of deceiving or manipulating other people, while in others they are made unconsciously, due to error in reasoning or ignorance.
At first glance, it may seem that an error is easy to spot, but the reality is that sometimes these deceptions or errors in reasoning are so subtle that it takes a lot of attention to identify them, which leads people to take bad decisions.
In addition, the fact that an argument is considered an error, also called a fallacious argument, this does not necessarily imply that their assumptions or assumptions are neither false nor true. It is possible that a reasoning based on certain assumptions is a fallacious judgment, because it makes it false is the invalidity of the reasoning itself.
Once we understand the meaning of the concept of error, it may be easier for us to understand what a player’s error is based on. This deception also known as player errors or Monte Carlo, due to its relationship to gambling, is a logical error whereby people mistakenly believe that random past events influence or affect future events. random.
For example, if we roll a dice and the number three comes out, it is very possible that due to the player’s error we will reach the conclusion that it is unlikely that in a second throw this same number will emerge again; when in reality the probabilities are the same.
Because this type of logical deception is associated with the world of gambling, its main consequence is usually some kind of economic loss on the part of the victim of the error.
The misconceptions that close this logical error
As we have already mentioned, the main deception in player error is to believe that a past random event conditions the outcome of a future random event. However, there are other misconceptions locked within it. These are as follows.
1. A random event is more likely to occur because it has not happened over a period of time.
For example, if we return to the case of the dice, this error can lead us to think that if by rolling the dice 10 times the number 3 has never been rolled, it is more likely to come out on the next roll. But actually take that number off or whatever has the same probability.
2. A random event is less likely to occur because it has occurred over a period of time.
In this case, the reverse phenomenon occurs. If in a series of dice rolls the number 3 has appeared many times, the player’s error leads us to believe that on the next roll he is less likely to appear.
Another way to look at it is when buying a lottery ticket. Usually people are reluctant to buy tickets with repeated numbers. For example, anyone will choose 74 398 before 1011. The reason is that false logic leads us to think that it is very unlikely that so many repeated or consecutive numbers will come out.
3. A random event is less likely to occur if it has occurred recently.
For this error we can use the example of lotteries. If in the previous draw the winning number was 18245, it is very possible that lottery players fall into deception that it will not appear in the next draw. However, the reality is that, strange as it sounds, there are the same possibilities.
4. A random event is more likely to occur if it has not happened recently.
Finally, this false belief is the opposite of the previous one. On this occasion, the player’s error leads us to think, for example, that if in the game of roulette during the last throw the ball fell in the color red, it is more likely that it now falls in the dark .
What are the consequences of this error?
Although, once explained, anyone can think that she would not fall for this kind of deception. It is extraordinary to observe how this type of error it affects us and conditions us much more than we realize.
These mistaken thoughts appear unconsciously. One of the hallmarks of this gamer error is that people think we’re better at calculating odds.
The absolute conviction of the above misconceptions, it can lead people to lose large sums of money or even property. Let’s not forget that gambling can be addictive and there are more and more betting and gambling games that a person can participate in without leaving the living room of their home.
If we add to the addiction that these games generate, to the fact that no one is immune from the influence of player error, we will consequently get a large number of people losing large sums of money without be aware of the thinking errors that lead them to this.